Working Papers

“Affordable Housing Construction and Local Public Safety: Evidence from Los Angeles” with Aria Golestani and Matthew B. Ross

Abstract Affordable housing development is a central policy tool for addressing housing insecurity. Local opposition to new projects often centers on concerns about public safety. We study the effects of new affordable housing on nearby crime in Los Angeles from 2005 to 2023 using administrative records on housing-site openings and permits linked to geocoded public safety data. Exploiting temporal and geographic variation in site openings, we find that any pooled effects are highly localized: 911 calls increase by roughly 20 percent in the immediate vicinity of new sites, but these effects attenuate quickly with distance and become difficult to detect at broader spatial scales. These average effects, however, mask substantial heterogeneity across housing types. Supportive housing developments are associated with much larger and more persistent increases in nearby crime, with the strongest effects concentrated near project sites but extending over a broader surrounding areas. By contrast, effects for non-supportive affordable housing are modest and generally similar to those of market-rate multifamily housing. The results suggest that the local public safety effects of affordable housing are not homogeneous across project types and concerns about public safety are most salient for supportive housing developments. These findings provide new and nuanced evidence that informs a contentious policy debate in which local public safety concerns have often constrained efforts to expand affordable housing and where those concerns are not typically incorporated into siting decisions.

“Business Licensing Trajectories around Mixed-Use Housing Construction: Evidence from Chicago”

Abstract Mixed-use development has become a cornerstone of contemporary urban planning, promoted as a way to add housing supply while keeping neighborhoods walkable and commercially active. Yet how nearby business activity evolves around these projects remains largely unknown. Linking permit records of mixed-use construction to annual business licensing in Chicago from 2002 to 2025, I examine how housing and local commerce develop together. Licensed business activity is higher in the years around mixed-use permit issuance, and a stock/flow decomposition points to new business entry, rather than fewer exits, as the clearest margin. The gains are positive across food, retail, services, and entertainment but differ in size and precision. Together, these patterns describe neighborhoods where new housing and licensed business activity grow together, adding descriptive evidence to debates over whether denser, mixed-use development supports neighborhood commerce.

Publications

“The Effect of Source of Income Policies on Recipients of Non-Voucher Categories of Protected Income” (2026) accepted for publication in Atlantic Economic Journal.

Abstract Source of income laws prohibit landlords from discriminating against rental housing applicants based on reported income sources. Such laws are now in force in more than 20 states and 100 local jurisdictions. Prior research has focused on their impact on recipients of Housing Choice Vouchers; this paper provides the first examination of their effects on recipients of non-voucher categories of protected income, including Supplemental Security Income and welfare payments. Using American Community Survey microdata from 2006 to 2021, aggregated to the Consistent Public Use Microdata Area-by-year level, and a robust event-study estimator, the analysis estimates intent-to-treat effects on residential mobility, gross rent, household size, and crowding for likely-affected renters. Estimated effects are uniformly close to zero across all four outcomes. The mobility estimates are precise enough to rule out increases above 2 to 3 percentage points, equivalent to relative increases above 10% to 13% given a baseline mobility rate of 22%. The estimates indicate that, in nationally representative survey data, source of income laws do not generate large detectable aggregate changes for non-voucher protected-income recipients on the housing margins observable in the American Community Survey.

“Drinking Water Contamination and Home Prices: Evidence from California” (2025) in Applied Economics Letters (advance online publication): 1-5.

Abstract Water systems in the U.S. are required to provide notifications to consumers when they detect elevated levels of contaminants in drinking water. This paper provides the first examination of the effects of nitrate contamination notifications on home prices in California, an issue that has impacted more than 1.4 million residents in affected water systems across the state. Using a robust difference-in-differences and event-study framework with ZIP-code level housing data from 2000 to 2024, I find that nitrate contamination notifications are associated with statistically significant declines in home prices of approximately 5.8 percent in the years following a notification. These estimates imply economic costs amounting to $212.5 million for an average-sized water system.

“Measuring Take-up of the California EITC with State Administrative Data” (2023) with John Iselin and Matthew Unrath in the Journal of Public Economics 227: 105002.

Abstract The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash-based means-tested transfer program in the United States. In 2021, 31 million households received $64 billion from the federal EITC. Twenty-eight states also offer eligible taxpayers a supplement to the federal program. An estimated one-fifth of eligible households fail to claim the federal credit, but little is known about take-up of these state programs. We use administrative data from California on the population of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients linked to state tax records to estimate the number of households who are eligible for California's supplement to the federal EITC (CalEITC) but do not claim it. We find that over 400,000 households who received SNAP benefits and who were eligible for the state EITC in 2017 did not receive the credit. This includes approximately 40,000 eligible households who claimed the federal EITC but not the state credit; nearly 98,000 eligible households who filed a state tax return but did not claim the state or federal credit; and roughly 270,000 eligible households who did not file a state tax return. The corresponding take-up rate for the CalEITC among eligible SNAP-enrolled households was 54%. Altogether, these households left a total of $71 million in state EITC funds on the table. If received, these credits would have increased incomes among these households by 2.7% and increased total state EITC outlays by 20%.
  • Click here for a policy brief on this paper from California Policy Lab

“Driver’s Licenses for Unauthorized Immigrants and Auto Insurance” (2021) with Brandyn Churchill and Bing Yang Tan in Contemporary Economic Policy 39(1):107-125.

Abstract Fourteen states and the District of Columbia allow unauthorized immigrants to obtain driver's licenses. Using variation in the timing and location of these policy changes, we show these Unauthorized Immigrant License Polices (UILPs) are associated with a 1% increase in both the number of licensed drivers and liability insurance coverage, although we do not document a statistically significant relationship with auto insurance claims. Nor do we detect a significant relationship between UILPs and the number of miles driven, vehicle registrations, air quality, or travel behaviors. Overall, our results are consistent with UILPs licensing unauthorized immigrants who were already driving.
  • Click here for a non-technical discussion of this paper

“The Effect of E-Verify Laws on Crime” (2021) with Brandyn Churchill, Andrew Dickinson, and Joseph J. Sabia in ILR Review 75(5): 1294-1320.

Abstract E-Verify laws, which have been adopted by 23 states, require employers to verify whether new employees are eligible to legally work prior to employment. This study explores the impact of state E-Verify laws on crime. Using data from the 2004–2015 National Incident Based Reporting System, the authors find that the enactment of E-Verify is associated with a 7% reduction in property crime incidents involving Hispanic arrestees. This finding was strongest for universal E-Verify mandates that extend to private employers and its external validity bolstered by evidence from the Uniform Crime Reports. Supplemental analyses from the Current Population Survey suggest two mechanisms to explain this result: E-Verify-induced increases in the employment of low-skilled natives of Hispanic descent and out-migration of younger Hispanics. Findings show no evidence that arrests were displaced to nearby jurisdictions without E-Verify or that violent crime or arrests of African Americans were affected by E-Verify laws. The magnitudes of the estimates suggest that E-Verify laws averted $491 million in property crime costs to the United States.

“The Unintended Effects of Ban-the-Box Laws on Crime” (2021) with Dhaval Dave, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Joseph J. Sabia in The Journal of Law and Economics 64(4): 783-820.

Abstract Ban-the-box (BTB) laws, which prevent employers from asking prospective employees about their criminal histories at initial job screenings, are intended to increase employment opportunities and reduce incentives for crime. This study is the first to comprehensively explore the relationship between BTB laws and arrests. Using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System, we find that BTB laws are associated with a 16 percent increase in criminal incidents involving Hispanic male arrestees. This finding is supported by parallel analysis using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and is consistent with BTB-law-induced job loss due to employer-based statistical discrimination. We find less evidence that BTB laws increase property crime among African American men. Supplemental analyses from the American Community Survey suggest that barriers to welfare participation among Hispanic men may partially explain this result. Our estimates suggest that BTB laws generate approximately $350 million in additional annual crime costs.

“Detecting Community Response to Water Quality Violations using Bottled Water Sales” (2019) with Maura Allaire, Shuyan Zheng, and Upmanu Lall in PNAS 116(42): 20917-20922.

Abstract Drinking-water contaminants pose a risk to public health. When confronted with elevated levels of contaminants, individuals can take actions to reduce exposure. Yet, few studies address averting behavior due to impaired water, particularly in high-income countries. This is a problem of national interest, given that 9 million to 45 million people have been affected by water quality violations in each of the past 34 years. No national analysis has focused on the extent to which communities reduce exposure to contaminated drinking water. Here, we present an assessment that sheds light on how communities across the United States respond to violations of the Safe Drinking Water Act, using consumer purchases of bottled water. This study provides insight into how averting behavior differs across violation types and community demographics. We estimate the change in sales due to water quality violations, using a panel dataset of weekly sales and violation records in 2,151 counties from 2006 to 2015. Critical findings show that violations which pose an immediate health risk are associated with a 14% increase in bottled water sales. Generally, greater averting action is taken against contaminants that might pose a greater perceived health risk and that require more immediate public notification. Rural, low-income communities do not take significant averting action for elevated levels of nitrate, yet experience a higher prevalence of nitrate violations. Findings can inform improvements in public notification and targeting of technical assistance from state regulators and public health agencies in order to reduce community exposure to contaminants.

“Minimum Cash Wages, Tipped Restaurant Workers, and Poverty” (2018) with Joseph J. Sabia and Richard V. Burkhauser in Industrial Relations 57(4): 637-670.

Abstract This is the first study to examine the effect of increases in the tipped minimum cash wage—the wage employers must pay to tipped employees—on poverty. Using March Current Population Survey data (1988–2014), we find that tipped minimum cash wage increases are associated with declines in the risk of a tipped restaurant worker living in a poor family (elasticities around −0.2). However, we find little evidence of poverty-alleviating effects when using the household rather than the family as the sharing unit. This result is consistent with evidence that a substantial share of tipped workers who live in a poor family live in a nonpoor household with persons unrelated by blood, marriage, or adoption who contribute to the household's income. Furthermore, we find that tipped minimum cash wage hikes are associated with increases in the risk of a younger, less-educated individual living in a poor family or household. Adverse labor demand effects that redistribute income among low-skilled individuals drive these results. We conclude that raising the tipped minimum cash wage is a poorly targeted policy to deliver income to poor restaurant workers.

Other Projects

“The California Children Who May Miss the 2021 Federal Child Tax Credit” (2021) policy brief written with Elsa Augustine, Aparna Ramesh and Matt Unrath for California Policy Lab.

  • Media coverage: ABC